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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."